Creating Strategy When Everything is Complex
The Challenge
When we think about strategy, we think about 5-10 year plans, based on careful analysis of the environment. They have bold objectives which cascade as sub-objectives to different parts of the organisation. It looks great when the ink is still wet. Yet it takes no time at all for the future to show up differently from what you expected, and therefore planned for.
The challenge is the VUCA world – Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous. It means that “no plan survives contact with the enemy” as the old army adage goes. In other words, it doesn’t matter how much analysis your strategy is based on, you can’t analyse the future and it’s the future you’re planning for.
So how can organisations strategise in complexity? What can organisations rely on when things suddenly change?
Taking Action
In fast-changing or uncertain business environments, traditional strategic planning often falls short. Many organisations assume that careful analysis and expert advice will reveal the best course of action, but this only works when the world behaves predictably. To help leaders understand the nature of the situations they face, management consultant and researcher David Snowden developed the Cynefin Framework
The Cynefin framework helps organisations recognise the type of environment they are actually operating in, not the one they wish they were in. It distinguishes between different contexts, notably Complicated and Complex environments, which demand very different approaches to decision-making.
In a Complicated environment, relationships between cause and effect can be uncovered through analysis and expertise. With enough investigation, organisations can make sense of the situation and produce a reasoned, step-by-step strategic plan.
In contrast, Complex environments cannot be fully understood in advance. Their cause and effect are only clear in hindsight, and patterns emerge unpredictably. Lessons learned are difficult to rely on as situations may never repeat themselves.
Yet Snowdon does encourage action within Complexity. He suggests an experimental, iterative approach where something is tried and tested, gradually learning how actions deliver value as the future unfolds. Strategy in this context becomes more agile, based on patterns of working rather than big coordinated plans. The focus is on repeating sprints that rapidly prototype new solutions to test if they add aspired value.
How We Help
Shifting toward a more agile, adaptive approach to strategy often requires deep behavioural change, not just new processes. At Organisational Coaching Hub, we help organisations navigate this shift by developing the mindsets, teaming behaviours and leadership capabilities that enable agility to take root.
Whether it’s supporting digital transformation, embedding agile practices, or helping teams work effectively in complex environments, we partner with you to turn strategic experimentation into lasting organisational change.
See some of our case studies for examples of how we have done this.
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